Former Vice President and presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, has warned the Federal Government, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies against using state institutions to influence the outcome of Saturday’s Osun State governorship election.

Atiku said the August 15 election would be an important test of Nigeria’s commitment to credible elections ahead of the 2027 general election, accusing authorities of deploying a security posture that, in his view, was excessive for a civilian electoral exercise.

He spoke on Wednesday at the ADC National Youth Leadership Summit in Abuja, where he also raised fresh questions about the academic certificate submitted by President Bola Tinubu to INEC and unveiled a proposal for greater youth participation in elective politics.

Atiku’s remarks add another layer to the increasingly intense political contest surrounding the Osun governorship election, which has attracted significant attention from the major political parties and heightened concerns over security, electoral integrity and the conduct of political actors.

‘Elections are civil engagements, not military operations’

The former vice president criticised what he described as the scale and posture of security deployment ahead of the Osun poll.

According to Atiku, the atmosphere surrounding the election appeared closer to preparations for a military operation than a democratic contest in which citizens should freely exercise their constitutional right to vote.

“Elections are civil engagements, not military operations. Ballot papers are not bullets. Voters are not enemy combatants. Opposition members are not insurgents.”

He questioned why similar levels of security mobilisation were not being directed towards combating terrorism, kidnapping and banditry in parts of the country.

Atiku argued that security agencies should protect voters, electoral officials and election materials rather than create an atmosphere capable of intimidating citizens or discouraging participation.

His position comes as security arrangements for the Osun election have become an increasingly prominent part of the political conversation, with parties and political actors closely watching the deployment of security personnel across the state.

Atiku challenges INEC to guarantee credible poll

Atiku also directed a warning at INEC, urging the electoral body to ensure that no administrative, technical or logistical issues are allowed to undermine the credibility of the election.

He specifically cautioned against what he described as “mysterious glitches, unexplained delays or manipulation” during the electoral process.

The ADC presidential candidate demanded the timely arrival of election materials, unhindered accreditation and voting, transparent counting and credible transmission of results.

His argument is that the credibility of an election is determined not simply by whether voting takes place, but by whether voters can participate without intimidation and whether the votes they cast are properly counted and reflected in the final result.

Atiku further sought to draw a line between the institutions of the Nigerian state and the interests of political parties.

“The police belong to Nigeria. The military belongs to Nigeria. INEC belongs to the Nigerian people. None of them belongs to the APC.”

He appealed to the electoral commission and security agencies to remain institutionally neutral throughout the process.

“The world is watching Osun. Nigerians are watching. History is taking notes. Let the people vote. Let every vote count. And let the will of the people prevail.”

Why Osun matters beyond August 15

Atiku’s description of Osun as a “test” for Nigeria’s democracy reflects the broader political significance attached to the election.

The governorship poll is taking place less than a year before the 2027 general election and has consequently become a useful indicator for political parties, election observers and voters assessing the direction of Nigeria’s electoral environment.

For the opposition, the election represents an opportunity to demonstrate that incumbent political structures can be defeated through the ballot box.

For the ruling APC, retaining influence in Osun would provide political momentum as the party prepares for the much larger 2027 contest.

The election is also unfolding against the backdrop of heightened political realignment across the country, including the emergence of the ADC as a major opposition platform and the movement of prominent politicians between political parties.

Consequently, the conduct of the Osun election is likely to influence not only the immediate political balance in the state but also perceptions about the credibility of Nigeria’s electoral institutions ahead of 2027.

Atiku revives Tinubu’s Chicago State University certificate controversy

Beyond the Osun election, Atiku used the summit to reopen questions surrounding the academic certificate President Tinubu submitted to INEC.

The controversy dates back to the 2023 presidential election cycle and became particularly prominent after legal proceedings in the United States involving Chicago State University (CSU) and Atiku’s efforts to obtain Tinubu’s academic records.

Atiku questioned reported differences between the certificate submitted to INEC and another document produced in connection with CSU records.

He specifically referred to differences in the dates appearing on the documents, with one reportedly bearing June 22, 1979, while another carries June 27, 1979.

The issue has previously been reported in connection with the US litigation. Tinubu’s lawyers had argued that an error by a university clerk resulted in the discrepancy, maintaining that June 22, 1979 was the correct graduation date. 

Chicago State University has separately confirmed that Tinubu attended the institution and was awarded a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with honours in June 1979.

A 2022 response from the university’s registrar’s office stated that he attended CSU from August 1977 to June 1979 and graduated on June 22, 1979. 

Atiku, however, is now questioning the authenticity and provenance of the specific document submitted to INEC, rather than simply whether Tinubu attended Chicago State University.

‘Who produced the certificate?’

Atiku asked a series of questions concerning the origin and authorisation of the document.

“Who produced the certificate Tinubu submitted to INEC? When was it produced? Who authorised it? Why does it differ from the other version, and does Chicago State University authenticate the exact document submitted to INEC?”

He also questioned the reported appearance of names or signatures associated with university officials whose tenures allegedly began years after the date appearing on the certificate.

Those questions remain part of a controversy that has persisted for years, although the existence of discrepancies does not, by itself, establish that a certificate was forged.

That distinction is important in reporting the issue: allegations concerning the document’s authenticity and questions raised by Atiku should not be presented as established facts unless supported by a competent authority or definitive evidence.

Atiku invokes constitutional provision on forged certificates

The ADC candidate also referred to Section 137(1)(j) of the 1999 Constitution, which concerns presidential disqualification where a candidate has presented a forged certificate to INEC.

His argument is that because the constitutional provision attaches serious consequences to the presentation of a forged certificate, the exact document submitted to the electoral commission should be capable of authentication.

Atiku framed the issue as one of equal standards for public office holders.

“If a young Nigerian would be required to explain such discrepancies before getting an ordinary job, why should the man seeking Nigeria’s highest job be exempt from the same standard?”

The renewed controversy is politically significant because Atiku and Tinubu were the principal presidential candidates of the PDP and APC respectively in the 2023 election, and Atiku has remained one of Tinubu’s most prominent political challengers.

However, the certificate controversy is not new, and previous reporting has established that CSU recognised Tinubu as a graduate of the university. The current dispute centres on the precise documents, their provenance and the explanations for differences between versions. 

Atiku promises 30% legislative slots for young candidates

The ADC presidential candidate also used the summit to make a commitment on youth participation in politics.

He pledged that at least 30 per cent of legislative candidates under his political programme would be below the age of 40, with a significant proportion of those candidates below 30.

The proposal comes amid persistent concerns over the limited representation of young Nigerians in elected political positions despite the country’s youthful population.

Atiku urged young Nigerians not to remain spectators in the political process.

“Register. Organise. Lead.”

He warned that social media activism alone would not translate into political power without organisation and participation.

“Anger is not an organisation. A hashtag is not an organisation.”

His message was directed at a generation that has increasingly used social media to express frustration over governance, unemployment, insecurity and economic hardship, but which remains comparatively underrepresented in elected office.

“Your time is not tomorrow. Your time is now.”

What Atiku’s intervention means for the ADC

Atiku’s address also serves a broader political purpose for the ADC as the party seeks to establish itself as a credible opposition platform ahead of 2027.

The party has attracted prominent political figures and is attempting to build a coalition capable of challenging the APC at the presidential level.

The Osun election provides the opposition with an immediate electoral test.

While the ADC is not the principal incumbent party in Osun, its leadership has a political interest in demonstrating that opposition parties can mobilise voters, protect their votes and compete effectively within the existing electoral framework.

Atiku’s decision to place electoral integrity, security deployment and youth participation at the centre of his address therefore goes beyond the immediate Osun contest.

It is also an attempt to define the ADC’s broader political message ahead of 2027: competitive elections, institutional neutrality and greater participation by younger Nigerians.

Nigeria Insight Analysis: The real test may be institutional trust

This section is analysis, not straight news reporting.

The most consequential part of Atiku’s intervention may not ultimately be his criticism of the security deployment.

It is his argument that Osun will test public confidence in Nigeria’s electoral institutions.

Elections depend on more than the technical ability to conduct voting. They depend on citizens believing that their votes will be protected, counted and reflected in the final outcome.

When opposition parties perceive security agencies as partisan, when ruling parties perceive opposition accusations as attempts to delegitimise the process, and when voters become convinced that the result has already been determined, the credibility of the election can suffer even before the first ballot is cast.

That makes the conduct of the Osun election particularly important.

INEC will have to demonstrate operational competence. Security agencies will have to demonstrate neutrality and restraint. Political parties will have to accept the rules of the contest. Candidates will have to discourage violence among their supporters.

And ultimately, voters will have to be allowed to make their choices without intimidation.

The real measure of success, therefore, will not simply be which candidate wins.

It will be whether Nigerians can look at the process afterwards and reasonably conclude that the people, rather than political power, determined the result.