Nigeria is stepping up efforts to raise crude oil production to three million barrels per day by 2030 through fresh investments, new licensing rounds, improved field operations and strengthened pipeline security, DARE OLAWIN writes.

Nigeria is intensifying efforts to increase crude oil production to three million barrels per day by 2030, with the Federal Government pursuing fresh investments, expanded licensing.

opportunities and stronger protection of oil infrastructure to reverse years of declining output and attract capital into the upstream petroleum sector.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is spearheading the investment drive through licensing rounds designed to bring more operators into the industry.

The commission has announced a 2026 licensing round offering 40 oil and gas blocks across onshore, shallow-water and deepwater terrains.

At the same time, pipeline security, particularly in the Niger Delta, remains central to efforts to curb crude oil theft, minimise production disruptions and improve the reliability of petroleum transportation.

Nigeria’s crude oil production peaked at approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in November 2005. More than two decades later, the country is yet to return to that level consistently, despite reforms, new investments and successive government initiatives aimed at revitalising the sector.

The Federal Government is targeting three million barrels of oil per day and 12 billion cubic feet of gas by 2030. Meeting these ambitions will require substantial capital, improved infrastructure, stronger security and sustained investment in exploration and production.

A member of the NUPRC Governing Board, Sunday Adebayo, said recent developments indicated that the country was making progress towards higher production.

“We have already started in a good direction. One of them is the bid rounds, which were successfully done. New ones will be done that will bring in more players,” he said.

Adebayo noted that the rig count had increased and expressed optimism that more drilling rigs would become operational as investment activities expanded.

He also cited the commencement of the 2026 licensing round, announced by the commission’s Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, as another step towards attracting investors into Nigeria’s petroleum industry.

According to him, cooperation between host communities and oil companies has also improved, creating opportunities for renewed operations in areas that previously experienced limited activities.

He identified the Ogoni area as one of the locations where renewed interest could support fresh investment and economic activities, adding that the involvement of host communities remained important to the sustainability of oil operations.

NUPRC Offers 40 Oil and Gas Blocks to Investors
Eyesan said the 2026 licensing round followed approvals granted by President Bola Tinubu and the Minister of Petroleum Resources.

She explained that the 40 blocks were open to investors with the technical expertise, financial capacity and commitment required to develop Nigeria’s petroleum resources.

“This round offers 40 blocks across land, shallow water and deepwater terrains. They are open to investors with the technical competence, financial capability and, above all, the commitment to develop Nigeria’s petroleum resources,” she said.

Eyesan stressed that Nigeria must improve its competitiveness as countries across the world compete for investment in upstream oil and gas projects.

“We will not rest on our laurels. Competition for upstream capital is fierce, and it grows fiercer by the day. Investors have choices.

They go where the rules are clear, where the process is predictable and where data can be trusted,” she added.

The licensing round comes against the backdrop of a significant decline in investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. According to Eyesan, annual investment in the sector fell from $26bn in 2014 to approximately $2bn.

The decline highlights the challenge facing the country as it seeks to attract the capital required to develop new fields, expand existing operations and improve production capacity.

The NUPRC has also identified the potential for significant investment in offshore oil and gas projects following the introduction of new incentives.

The commission said the incentives could attract $50bn in fresh investment into Nigeria’s offshore energy sector.

However, the ability to secure such investments will depend partly on the availability of skilled personnel to support increasingly complex exploration and production activities.

Speaking at a human resources conference, Eyesan said Nigeria needed to strengthen its supply of specialised workers, particularly those with digital skills and expertise in subsurface operations.

“Today we are attracting new investments, and so we want to see an upward trajectory. It stands to reason that you must go back to the basics. First of all, we need the right competencies in sub-surface,” she said.

Offshore developments require specialised technical knowledge to identify reserves, develop oil fields and maintain efficient production. Building the necessary workforce will therefore be important as Nigeria seeks to take advantage of new investment opportunities.

Oil Block Winners Face Deadline on Signature Bonuses
Beyond attracting new investors, the NUPRC is seeking to ensure that companies awarded oil and gas blocks meet their financial obligations and demonstrate their readiness to develop the assets.

The commission has warned 31 companies that emerged winners of 37 oil and gas blocks in the 2025 licensing round to pay their signature bonuses within the stipulated period or risk losing their provisional awards.

The warning followed the commercial bid conference held in Abuja, where the successful companies emerged as winners of the available blocks.

The commission said compliance with signature-bonus payments had commenced following the issuance of provisional awards.

It warned that companies that failed to pay within the prescribed timeframe in line with the Petroleum Industry Act would forfeit their bid guarantees and lose their provisional awards to reserve bidders.

Under the applicable licensing requirements, successful bidders are expected to pay signature bonuses ranging from $3m to $7m per block.

They are also required to provide the necessary guarantees, pay first-year rents and fulfil other post-award conditions within the stipulated period.

Failure to meet these obligations could result in the affected blocks being transferred to the next-ranked reserve bidders.

The requirements are intended to ensure that companies awarded petroleum assets possess the financial capacity and commitment needed to proceed with development rather than merely secure licences without meaningful investment.

Mature Oil Fields Offer Opportunities for Production Growth
While new licensing rounds are expected to attract fresh capital, Nigeria’s existing oil fields also offer opportunities to increase output through additional investment, drilling and improved operational efficiency.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Brittania-U, Catherine Uju Ifejika, recently highlighted the importance of investing in mature assets, citing the company’s Ajapa field.

She said Brittania-U invested more than $400m after acquiring the asset from Chevron. The investment covered additional drilling and the deployment of a Floating Production, Storage and Offloading facility.

According to her, the investment enabled the Ajapa field to commence production at approximately 2,300 barrels per day in 2010, followed by increased and more stable output.

The development illustrates how investments in existing fields can help improve production, particularly where operators can deploy additional wells, upgrade facilities and improve recovery rates.

For Nigeria, developing new fields alongside maximising the potential of mature assets will be important in closing the gap between current output and the government’s 2030 target.

However, investment decisions will continue to depend on the commercial attractiveness of projects, geological prospects, operating costs, infrastructure availability, security and the stability of the regulatory environment.

The country has recorded an improvement in crude oil and condensate production this year. According to the NUPRC, total output increased from 1.48 million barrels per day in February to 1.735 million barrels per day in June.

Although the increase represents progress, production remains substantially below the three-million-barrel-per-day target.

Nigeria is also seeking to take advantage of changes in global oil supply conditions, including disruptions associated with the war in Iran. Higher output could strengthen export earnings and government revenues, provided the country can sustain production and meet its supply commitments.

The challenge is to translate licensing awards and investment commitments into operational projects capable of delivering additional barrels over the coming years.

Pipeline Security Remains Critical to Oil Production
Alongside investment and regulatory reforms, the protection of oil infrastructure remains an important factor in Nigeria’s efforts to raise production.

Pipeline vandalism, illegal tapping and crude oil theft have historically undermined production, reduced government revenues and created operational challenges for oil companies, particularly in the Niger Delta.

The Federal Government’s engagement of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited to protect oil assets has become a significant part of discussions about improving security across the petroleum industry.

The company, led by High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, was engaged to support the protection of oil infrastructure and help address activities that disrupt petroleum production and transportation.

Tantita works alongside other security agencies in efforts to protect pipelines, deter crude oil theft and support stability in the Niger Delta.

The security of pipelines is important because disruptions can affect production, exports and government revenue. Damage to infrastructure and illegal connections can also increase operating costs and undermine confidence in Nigeria’s ability to deliver crude oil reliably.

Stakeholders supporting continued collaboration on pipeline surveillance have argued that protecting oil infrastructure is necessary to sustain production growth and improve the country’s economic prospects.

A recent survey cited in the report found that a majority of respondents attributed the de-escalation of security incidents in the Niger Delta to pipeline surveillance operations conducted by Tantita. However, the survey’s methodology and figures were not provided.

President-General of the Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Udoh, said pipeline surveillance had helped shift attention from responding to recurring security incidents towards longer-term planning across the petroleum sector.

He stressed that pipeline surveillance should be understood as one component of a wider energy system covering exploration, production, refining, distribution and pricing policies.

“Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” Udoh said, while emphasising that protecting the infrastructure through which petroleum resources are transported remained fundamental to the performance of the wider industry.

He argued that production targets, refining plans, exports and government revenue projections could be undermined when transportation infrastructure was insecure.

“Asset protection, in this context, is not a supporting activity. It is a precondition for economic order. In effect, the pipeline is the hinge on which the entire petroleum value chain turns,” he said.

According to Udoh, sustained monitoring and rapid-response systems had helped reduce pipeline breaches and illegal tapping, while improved receipt rates had supported higher production.

He also linked the security of petroleum transportation infrastructure to Nigeria’s ability to meet export commitments and plan refining operations.

“When crude flows are secure, refineries can plan feedstock intake with assurance. Export commitments can be met without fear of sudden shortfalls,” he said.

Udoh added that reliable petroleum flows could help investors assess risks more accurately and make informed decisions about projects in Nigeria.

He maintained that predictable supply would strengthen government budgeting, improve infrastructure planning and make long-term commercial contracts easier to negotiate.

Sustained Investment Needed to Meet 2030 Target
Nigeria’s ambition to raise oil production to three million barrels per day by 2030 will depend on the combined impact of new investments, licensing reforms, improved operations in existing fields and sustained protection of petroleum infrastructure.

The increase in production from 1.48 million barrels per day in February to 1.735 million barrels per day in June indicates progress, but further growth will require projects to move from the licensing and investment stages to actual production.

The government must also address the factors that influence investors’ decisions, including regulatory certainty, technical capacity, infrastructure, operating costs and security.

While pipeline surveillance can help reduce disruptions and protect petroleum transportation networks, it cannot independently deliver the investment, exploration, drilling and infrastructure expansion needed to meet the production target.

The challenge for Nigeria is therefore to sustain improvements in oil asset security while ensuring that licensing opportunities attract credible investors, awarded blocks are developed and existing fields operate more efficiently.

Whether the country reaches three million barrels per day by 2030 will ultimately depend on its ability to turn these initiatives into consistent and commercially sustainable production growth.